Agenda item

That the presentation be noted.

5.1       Barry Quirk, Chief Executive, gave a presentation to the Committee, a copy of which will be included with the agenda documentation. During the presentation and following questions from members of the Committee, the following key points were highlighted:

·         There had been dramatic changes in the demographic make-up of London in the last 10 years.

·         The population of London was hugely significant in terms of numbers: More people lived in North London than in Scotland; more people lived in South London than Wales. The size of London comparatively to the second largest city of Birmingham was also very large with the population of Birmingham being around 1.1 million people compared to 8.7 million in London.

·         There were major differences in London compared to national averages, for example – 62% of the population of inner London were in rented accommodation compared to 30% nationally. This meant that housing policies that worked for outside London were different from what was most suitable for London.

·         The population of Lewisham was predicted to be 300,000 currently with a projected increase to between 314,000 and 360,000 by 2040.

·         The main predictions were from GLA and ONS with the GLA having higher predictions than the ONS.

·         Birth rates, long and short-term migration trends and number of available homes could all be used to predict demographic changes. Migration trends and birth rates were challenging to predict which accounted for the range in the forecast population increase.

·         The Committee heard that the GLA figures were not capped based on maximum number of properties where as some experts felt this was a likely natural cap to population rises.

·         In Lewisham, the movement between those moving in and out of the borough was much more significant in terms of numbers and effect on overall population than changes in the birth rate which accounted for only a small part of predicted changes.

·         When asked whether there was a trend for families with young children to move out of the borough, the committee heard that there was no evidence of this currently and the changes were more likely to be from people without children moving in and out of the borough.

·         The rate of international migration had a bigger net effect on the Lewisham population that domestic (within UK) migration but the numbers involved in domestic migration were much higher as the London Borough of Lewisham had low proportion of international migration compared to domestic.

·         Currently there was not enough evidence to understand comprehensively the changes in terms of socio-economic groups of those moving in to Lewisham versus those moving out.

·         Other influences on changes to demographic make-up included older home-owners “cashing in” on higher property values and moving out of London, and currency changes. The fall in the value of the pound by 15% since June 2016 was also believed to be likely to affect the population. In particular those who sent a proportion of their wages to their home country may have less incentive to stay in the UK. In 2017, there had been an unexpected fall in schools admissions for Primary across London of 5% compared to 2016. The reasons for this were still unknown.

·         Demographic change was dynamic and causation was inter-related and complex. Historically policies tended to be created based on simple linear dependencies and not taking into account the current complex interdependent system.

·         Budgetary pressures from changing demographics included a predicted 33% increase in the numbers of people aged over 80 years old in the next 13 years. This figure was lower than the predicted increases across the whole of London and the UK. The implications from the increase in numbers of people over 80 and 90 years old for the NHS and Social Services were huge.

·         There was a forecast prediction in the percentage of working age adults increasing by 11.6% in London to 2030 compared to 3.5% across England in this time. The difference between London and the rest of England would therefore be likely to be exaggerated unless an external factor drove change such as house prices, pollution/congestion or Brexit.

·         Percentage of BAME residents of Lewisham was not predicted to change dramatically in Lewisham between now and 2030 with a predicted increase of just 2 percentage points and in many other inner London boroughs such as Lambeth the percentage of BAME residents as a proportion of total residents looked likely to fall. This was in contrast to some outer London boroughs such as Newham where there has been a large increase in the number of BAME residents between the 2001 and 2011 census and a trend that looks likely to continue.

·         According to the PWC report “Facing Facts”, London’s workforce was educated with 43% holding a degree or equivalent. The report also stated that UK and EU-15 migrants tended to work in managerial and professional roles across the full range of industry sectors, whereas non-EU and Post-2004 Accession Country migrants tended to undertake semi-routine and routine work, work in small businesses or are self-employed – often in the construction, tourism or wholesale & retail sectors.

·         In Lewisham there was 1 household in 70 that was in temporary accommodation. Further increases would have an impact on the Council’s budget.

·         Lewisham faced significant challenges but would be less hard hit by the costs of care for the elderly than many areas.

·         There were significant concerns about the implications of Brexit. 20% of the London economy was finance based which could be badly hit if Britain were to leave the Single Market area. There was a limited understanding of the full supply chain and the knock-on effect this could have across sectors.

·         A lot of uncertainty around future predictions still existed. Lewisham was in as strong position in terms of the value of land still being significantly lower than many other inner London boroughs making it comparatively more affordable.

·         It was still unclear as to whether a fall in house prices or a fall in net migration would reduce housing problems or not.

·         Lewisham’s demographics linked to different geographies for different services. For example; the health economy was linked to Lambeth, Greenwich, Bromley and Southwark; employment was linked to central London and Docklands; Education was linked to Bromley and Greenwich.

·         The changes to local government funding from the introduction of Business Rate Retention would be very challenging for many local authorities. Property tax would be rising at less than inflation at a time when social care costs will be rising dramatically.

5.2       RESOLVED:

That the presentation be noted.